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Once again, the end of the year approaches and it's time to take stock of the follies I've so foolishly written down last year. Perhaps I'll also spend a bit of time attempting to prognosticate the future in this incredibly volatile world we currently live in, too...
2025 Recap...
Last year I managed to get an accuracy of 57% but given everything that's happened to derail plans this year (tariffs, shortages, etc) I'd be happy to get 20% correct for this entry. Let's get straight to the pain!
- The RTX 5060 will be the first Nvidia GPU to feature 24 Gb (3 GB) modules.
- The RTX 5060 will be the only RTX 50 series GPU that utilises the 24 Gb modules.
- The desktop RTX 5060 will either release with 12 GB VRAM or have a variant with the 12 GB configuration.
Zero for three, so far..
- RTX 50 series and RX 90 series will be unimpressive in the price to performance compared with the current generation (RTX 40/RX 7000). We will not get large performance gains at each price point - with the exception of the RTX 5090.
The RTX 4060 was around 10% more powerful than the RTX 3060. The RX 7600 was similarly faster than the RX 6600 XT. This generation, the RTX 5060 was 20% faster and the RX 9060 XT was 25% faster. Those are decent single generation gains but essentially status quo considering the small gains the prior generation.
As I pointed out last time, we didn't even get a performance gain that jumped a single performance tier level. The RX 9060 XT didn't meet the RX 7700 XT's level of performance and the RTX 5060 didn't beat the RTX 4060 Ti - which is just pathetic! Worse still, the price of these products is maybe only €50 less than those last gen products were at their cheapest and neither provides more VRAM at that price.
Similarly, the RTX 5070 released at the price that the RTX 4070 Super tended to sell at towards the end of its lifecycle. I bought a 4070S for around €570 and the 5070 released at around €580 - 600.
So, zero real-world gains to be had on those products.
However, the RX 9070 and 9070 XT "launched" at very reasonable prices but these turned out to be "fake" prices, despite months of delay which allowed AMD and their partners to stock-up supply in order to meet demand. At the actual prices these cards were met with in the customers' hands there was a very slight increase in performance per Euro but nothing impressive.
Since that initial rush for GPUs (since Nvidia failed to supply the market and AMD's larger than usual supply wasn't enough to fill the void [and Intel was MIA]) the 9070 has been seen for as low as around €520 but is currently hovering around the price of the RTX 5070. The RX 9070 XT has similarly been around the price of the RX 7900 XT for a long while, too while almost meeting the performance of the €900-1000 RX 7900 XTX.
Meanwhile, the RTX 5070 Ti and 5080 slightly beat both of their prior gen equivalents (4070 Ti Super and 4080 Super) while remaining at around the same price points. Approximately 10% for the 5080 and 15% for the 5070 Ti. Unfortunately, these both fail to beat the tier above from the previous generation.
The RTX 5090 gets a decent 30% but not impressive compared to the price hike for that minimal level of performance...
So, I feel like aside from three GPUs (the RTX 5070, RX 9070 and XT) the rest of the stack were not impressive, and most of the stack from both manufacturers was not an improvement on price (especially near launch). So, you'll have to forgive me if I count this as correct.
- RDNA4 will still not be an impressive uplift in terms of ray tracing ability and will not be as performant as the RTX 4080.
This was categorically wrong for the improvement in performance. Not only was RDNA4 an impressive leap for RT workloads but it was also impressive for raster, too! However, I was still correct that none of te cards would be as performant as the 4080 - the 9070 XT is around 5% below - close, but no banana!
I'm going to count this as 50/50.
- RDNA4 will initially only release as a mid-range product - no low end GPU will be present for the first half of 2025. The RX 9600/XT may not even see a release until 2026 but this is dependent on whether Nvidia launches the RTX 5060 or not during the year.
This prediction was *this* close to being correct. The 9070 and XT were announced at CES in Janurary and released in March. The RX 9060 XTs were announced in May and released in June. Just a few weeks later and it would have been the second half of 2025.
- The RDNA4 top card will release at around €649/$600.
I'm going to count this as correct since my prediction lay right in the middle of the range - the MSRP at launch was between €639 - 689. If you look at the "fake" MSRP in the USA, it was $599 - so, technically right on the money, even if they didn't stay at those prices. The cards are still not really below that €689 value all that much - with most in the low-to-mid-€700s.
- SteamOS will make a return for DIY desktop gaming PCs... (Linux through the back door).
I'm going to cheat with this one - I feel like I deserve it considering all the crap that the RAM shortage and DRAM manufacturer delays relating to 3 GB modules caused. The Steam Machine was announced and I'm going to count that as SteamOS making a return on desktop. Sure, people have been pulling the Steam Deck backup images into service to spin up their own "Steam machine" but I believe that the Steam Machine itself will make this process easier and improve support for hardware and software.
Overall score: 44% correct. A little below half (with a smidge of cheating!)...
Predictions for 2026...
Last year, I tried to increase the number of predictions but I realise now that:
- I chose too many predictions that rely on the same "reason" or topic.
- I didn't make enough predictions!!
*Ahem*
The only thing I'm a bit worried about is the total and complete chaos that "the industry" could be during 2026 - it may be impossible to predict anything with anything approaching logic. So, with that comforting thought, let's get to it!
- The RTX 5060 Ti will be the first GPU to feature 3 GB modules for its VRAM...
Before the rumours of Nvidia scaling back production of the 5060 Ti 16 GB because of the RAMpocolypse, I came to the realisation that it would be prudent for Nvidia to reduce the number of chips on their GPUs whilst still provding a decent amount of VRAM on their models.
For the 5060 Ti 16 GB, Nvidia require 8 modules. For a 12 GB variant, they would need only 4 modules - and they could still charge a premium over the 8 GB variant. However, you can't apply this logic to any other GPU in the stack - the 5070 Ti, and 5080 both have a 256 bit bus (meaning 8 modules is the minimum they can apply to the card unless they cut back the bus width). The same situation exists for the 192 bit RTX 5070, 128 bit RTX 5060/Ti 8 GB, and the 512 bit RTX 5090 - none of them can have the number of GDDR modules reduced without hampering performance of the memory architecture.
So, it makes sense that Nvidia would remove the 16 GB model of the 5060 Ti and instead replace it with a 12 GB model - or cancel it altogether...
This unfortunately means that the RTX 5060 will likely never receive a 12 GB variant because those modules would go to the pricier model in the stack: the 5060 Ti where the margins are higher.
- The RAM shortage will be much better by the end of October 2026 with broad availability of certain models improving. However, pricing will still be at least double what it was at the beginning of 2025...
Yes, this is technically on the same topic as the first prediction but this was something I have believed for a while. There have been many people looking at the sky falling for the next 2 - 3 years because of the AI vacuum sucking up the wafers previously allocated to DRAM, whilst others are much more upbeat about the ability of the industry to recover.
Some of the actual DRAM manufacturers are included in of the former group whilst other industry professionals (AIB partners, experienced industry analysts, etc) are included in the latter group. Personally, I think that both can be correct at the same time - they're just defining what the situation means differently. Having better supply for the consumer sooner, rather than later, is a "good" and "quick" outcome. However, having largely inflated prices is a "bad" outcome. Those points of view cover both groups and hence my prediction.
Back in February 2025, I bought a 7200 MT/s kit for €117; in January 2024, I bought a 6000 MT/s kit for €125; and in August 2023 I bought a 6400 MT/s kit for €113. That means that I'm expecting similar kits to be available for around €200 - 230 at the end of October 2026. Currently, they're either completely unavailable or priced between €400 - 600!
- No new GPUs (not including the 12 GB variant of the 5060 Ti!) will be released in 2026...
This really isn't a big stretch - we're less than a year into the current GPU generation. We're not expecting another generation until 2027. However, that does lead to my next prediction:
- Some GPU models (not including the 5060 Ti 16GB) will be either discontinued or production may be announced to be temporarily halted - in order to focus on other models and ensure their continued supply...
Let's face it, if the VRAM situation doesn't improve then it's only logical that AMD and Nvidia will turn to focus on their products with the highest margins. That most likely to be the RTX 5070 and above in terms of performance.
- Motherboards and/or CPUs, and/or power supplies will get cheaper...
We're already hearing that sales of motherboards are down due to the RAM shortage. Not only that but also rumours that AMD are bringing the B650 series of boards back into production. I predict that, to stimulate sales and avoid various companies going out of business, motherboards and CPUs will see price reductions. Similarly, power supplies are just not going to be in demand, either. So, I can see a world where they reduce to historic lows since their slight increases since the end of the cryptomining craze...
I'm not sure that even those measures will be enough but almost none of these companies can survive on minimal sales numbers for multiple years... However, this could have knock-on effects for the next generation of CPU and motherboard compatibility: if companies need an injection of cash, then CPU vendors would be hurting them by providing/allowing compatibility with existing motherboard platforms...
- SSDs will not come down in price and remain elevated and (second, but linked, prediction) supply will become constrained, with some models becoming frequently out of stock...
SSDs have also started going up in price. Currently, they are around €180 - 200 for a 2 TB Gen 4/5 drive whereas they were around €100 just a few months ago. The difference here is that there was no huge unexpected buy-up of NAND for AI like there was for DRAM - just a gradual increase in purchasing for AI and datacentre use, with capacity so maxed-out that 2026 is fully booked already! Additionally, NAND production is performed in separate facilities to DRAM, so there isn't as much contention for those particular resources and the vast majority of drives no longer use an integrated DRAM buffer.
Added to this, we have smaller capacity SATA HDDs being produced less (with the industry focussing on high capacity 10+ TB for datacentre workloads) with capacity not having been increased for around 10 years. Some sources say that SATA SSDs will begin to be phased out and this would likely be in favour of the U.2/U.3 formats of solid state storage used in server environments.
Unfortunately, m.2 is proving to have been a mistake in terms of not only capacity but also flexibility (motherboards typically don't manage to cram more than 2-3 slots, in total and prices of larger drives never came down like they did for HDDs). I would really like it if the U.2/3 standards came to consumer boards, so that manufacturers can focus on a single product and also faster speeds for bulk storage can be achieved.
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| Pick a card, any card... |
- Brands like Corsair may temporarily discontinue some of their vast numbers of product lines...
While Corsair might not be the best example, even well-known GPU makers like Gigabyte have quite varied portfolios. Given the RAM and storage shortages, I could see one or more manufacturers "refocussing" their efforts on their "core competencies" or something of the sort... It all comes down to what each manufacturer can easily get ahold of and what brings in the greatest profit margins. Could a GPU manufacturer choose to invest more energy on monitors, for example? I could see that happening. Gamers can purchase monitors with relative ease... which brings us to the next prediction:
- Monitors will continue getting cheaper and with more and better features for the price...
As I mentioned above, if gamers can't spend their hard-earned, inflation depreciated money on building a new PC, they can spend it on peripherals. And what are the best quality of life upgrades available that gamers usually avoid buying instead of new CPUs and GPUs?
That's right! Audiovisual equipment.
Higher quality monitors have already been dropping in price over the last year and there are even some OLED models in the $500 price range. While I don't expect significant further decreases in price, I can see better software and display features (such as increased areas of local dimming, greater refresh rates, and better HDR performance) coming to each existing price range. This would put further pressure on the low-end GPUs as they fail to work well at 1440p and high refresh rates in modern, graphically demanding titles...
Similarly, as we see revenue decrease for some of these brands, we may see a resurgence of audio equipment and marketing around the quality of such devices...
- The Steam Machine will launch at $550 for the 512 GB version and $700 for the 2 TB version...
With the DRAM and NAND problems, I don't think Valve can sell this very cheaply. I think the prices will be higher than they initially planned and have the chance to come back down if supply and pricing of the RAM and SSDs improve.
Personally, I think 512GB of storage is as egregious as 256GB was a few years ago - we shouldn't even be contemplating it in a PC that's meant for gaming but what can we do? We really seem to be sliding backwards, here.
- Valve will not announce any Steam Machine partners this year - so no higher end models...
I'm mostly just thinking this because I'm sure that Valve want to focus on optimising the SteamOS for the specific hardware in the Steam Machine and not for a more general approach. So, while I believe that Valve is very open to having third parties make bespoke hardware that's SteamOS "certified", the expense of RAM and Valve focusing on their own efforts probably mean we won't see other devices emerging - like the Lenovo Legion S (Steam version).
I also think third parties will prefer to act cautiously, allowing Valve to test the, waters of this new market...
- AMD will also temporarily halt the production of the 16 GB version of the RX 9060 XT resulting in it (or most models) going out of stock.
Similar to the rumours surrounding the RTX 5060 Ti, I can see AMD doing the same thing for their "RAM module intensive" GPU. All four Radeon 9000 series GPU models sport the same VRAM (20.1 Gbps) so they would benefit immensely by reallocating VRAM from the 9060 XT 16 GB to the 9070 or 9070 XT.
It's a logical business decision.
- Laptops, All-in-one PCs and mini-PCs will also see price rises and go out of stock. The remaining stock will, in the vast majority of cases, be barebones without RAM and storage...
I've already witnessed this starting to happen. I was looking at a 32GB Minisforum box and it sold out within a day of my interest. The 16 GB model is still in stock but has increased in price. They introduced a no RAM/storage option for the device...
This is pretty bad for businesses... We're potentially looking at 8 GB becoming the defacto shipping laptop configuration. Leading us to:
- Laptops will begin shipping more high end laptop models with 8GB RAM configurations in order to maintain inventory in the market...
This is pretty self-explanatory - in order to actually sell laptops to business customers, the OEMs will need to reduce to the minimum possible RAM configuration.
*Of course, I just watched GamersNexus' video (28th Dec) where they mention that Trendforce also predicts this same thing... I swear I didn't see this report before writing these predictions and this is still also a prediction from them, so I'm keeping it!
At this point in time, I see models up to around €400 with 8 GB RAM - which is almost a hate crime given how RAM hungry a lot of applications are (not to mention Windows, itself!). Things are likely to only get worse... Resulting in:
- Microsoft will release a "debloated" Windows 11 version which will focus on optimising for 8 GB system memory as a core experience...
They actually don't have a choice - Microsoft must do this in order to retain commercial customers and large OEMs like HP and Lenovo. I guess that's a net positive for existing gamers, too....
- We will not see the AI bubble burst this year...
Sorry, everyone. I just can't see it happening until 2027 at the earliest - we haven't reached peak stupidity, yet. They're only just talking about recommissioning the nuclear reactors from retired Navy vessels. So, plenty more rope available to hang themselves with!
Aaaaand, with that, we close off our predictions for another year. What are your predictions? Do you agree with any that I've made?
Wishing you all a Happy New Year and a safe year ahead!
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