Now is not the time to buy a PC...

Normally, I'm a pretty big advocate of PC gaming - I would class myself as an enabler because I love technology, enjoy playing around with the hardware, but also using it to enjoy technologically advanced games. I spend time online helping people not only to build and buy PCs but also troubleshoot their issues in order to improve their experience with that technology.

 

However, as part of the moral and ethical framework I hold in my head I just can't advise people to buy a PC right now. Let's get into why... 

Gold Rush...

 

The analogy people often enjoy making in the tech space is of the seller of shovels to those who want to dig. The problem I have always had is "what is the gold in this analogy?" As far as I can tell, there is no gold.

 

Looking at the tool landscape, CPU, NPU, and GPU are the current hoe, spade, and shovel (with dedicated, efficient ASICs still yet to take hold as they did for blockcoin mining). The shovel (GPU) is still the only tool able to effectively "move" dirt both in training and inference workloads but we still see repeated attempts to "AI-ify" the former tools as a selling point for the mass consumer market. And, although we've seen price increases in all of these tools due to this chasing of AI profit, we're still not seeing prices skyrocketing by a percentage anywhere near what they were during the various crypto crazes. 

 

The big issue for all of these tools is that AI requires memory (exponential amounts, based on current AI technological frameworks) and this is what has been driving up most costs to date. However, that has now changed...

 

The tool-making market has saturated its supply chain with demand* and, as far as I can tell, this has been an issue for at least half a year. Now, though, I see effects which are manifesting that show that the status quo will no longer be tolerated and that worries me on one hand, and brings me to write this blogpost on the other. 

*Note, I'm being very careful with my wording here - not the demand from the consumer market, the demand of the tool-making market...

 

CPUs are starting to decrease in supply and increase in cost...

 

The changes I'm seeing are chronic stock shortages of products that people can buy. The quantities of last gen CPUs from AM4 and Intel 1700 platforms are drying up, either becoming entirely out of stock or pushed up in price towards their 2023 levels. Ryzen 7000 models are not plentiful in the market and the 9000 series is also hovering between being in stock and increasing slightly in price. Even Intel's Core Ultra series are not in great supply - aside from the models that people really don't want, like the 225 and 245*.

 

AMD have just announced that the Ryzen 7 9850X3D is only $500, compared to $450 of the based 9800X3D - the fastest gaming CPU out of the box and likely to be so for the next year - at least - and they didn't price gouge! That tells you that they don't think they can get away with it and we know these companies hate to announce official price drops after release... something they could be forced to do if priced too high... 

*Though that may be more likely due to Intel seeing the Core Ultra 200 series as an albatross and TSMC happy to instead prioritise customers with big, expensive orders (such as Nvidia), it still doesn't explain why Intel's CPUs (manufactured at TSMC and packaged in New Mexico) are hit by this shortage when the reporting indicates that it is the Xeon products which are primarily affected...

 

This recent trend comes as gaming hardware and PC hardware are struggling coming into 2026 which, you would think, would lead to a softening of prices to encourage consumers to purchase them. I am seeing some reductions in motherboard and power supply pricing, which tallies with that logic but the situation with CPUs tells me a different story.

 

The consumer GPU supply, denied to be restricted by Nvidia and partners, is also severely impacted through over-booking of AI product sales - TSMC cannot keep up with the demand. As a result, restrictions are clearly in place as the cost of all consumer dedicated graphics cards has increased by a significant margin. The end result? It seems that Nvidia (in particular, but also others) have become very sensitive to the perception of market conditions and that they are not being truthful in their disclosures to the press, if not also investors.

 

 

In markets where there is supply, we're beginning to see price rises...

 

 

What worries me, specifically, is that the companies mentioned above appear to be in a rush to capitalise on the current conditions and that whispers in my ear that they perceive that the time to do so is coming to a close...

 

The financial year is coming to a close relatively soon, with reporting beginning tomorrow (3rd Feb) for AMD and the 25th Feb for Nvidia. Intel already released their Q4 results at the end of January and, I believe they have the least to lose from any AI contraction. I can imagine that both AMD and Nvidia will want to put as rosy a tint on the situation as possible, and prioritising the AI backorders is going to be the way to do that. That's not crazy insight, just basic logic!

 

However, as I implied above the level of deception and focus on the narrative over reality leads me to think that these companies are seeing the end of  their ability to profit from all things "AI" within the near-term future. That could be 6 to 12 months, for all I know.

 

GPUs aren't any better...

Shop Smart... 

 

So, with that groundwork underneath us, it's a really bad time to purchase a PC but more specifically, it's the worst time to build a PC - also something that pretty much everyone knows because of the memory prices (and now GPU prices) but I'm extending that further - everything you are buying now is the worst it will be.

 

It's like deciding to purchase a Celeron right before the new generation cheap parts release. Yeah, you saved money by going with the cheapest but you could have waited and gotten a cheap but more performant product. Nothing you are buying is good value for the money in this current market.

 

You're forced to buy worse memory and storage for more than double their worth, you're not getting good deals on CPUs, you have to buy a GPU tier down for the same money, motherboard prices on current gen are pretty bad, in general. The only saving grace are power supplies and cases - both of which are pretty decently priced (in my opinion).

 

Sure, buying a pre-built or mini PC is likely going to be the best way to get a PC in the short term but, eventually their existing stock will dry up and prices will also shoot up or the products will get worse. Currently, the site that I track for pre-builts (CyberPower UK) is charging around £1715 for a PC which cost around £1400 6 months ago. That's not that bad until you realise that they've made their default cases cheaper, I removed the AIO where it was previously present, and the SSD is now a 1TB Western Digital "Green" model... with proper 2TB NVMe drives costing an extra £120-300 more...

 

You could call it shrinkflation but it's just getting a worse overall product. However, just looking at the PC builder in that link, I can see that Ryzen 7000 series is no longer cheaper than the 9000 series - also pointing towards supply issues. 

 

Conclusion...

 

I believe that, unless you need to purchase a PC/laptop now, you should wait until the end of this year. That's a risky bet, I know - and I don't blame you if you don't want to take it, but I think the signs are pointing to a correction that's going to result in prices heading back to where they should be by then for a large proportion of components. 

Of course, whether retails will be stuck with over-priced stock, as happened after crypto/covid, will be a good question. In which case, there will be no normalcy until next generation/new products launch.

So, it's a "damnned if you do, damnned if you don't" situation... Not great!