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| Hap-pey Burf-yay! |
The introduction to last year's post could almost be copy/pasted into this one. Work was even more intense than last year and I know for a fact that 2024 will be even tougher, so my hopes for spending time writing for this blog look set to be a big loss... But, that doesn't mean that I won't try and address things when I feel I can dedicate the time or perform more comparisons and benchmarks for everyone to digest.
2023 was a big year for hardware releases - with most of the current generations of CPU and GPUs being released at some point. Sure, we're getting some minor refreshes from Nvidia next year but, overall, 2024 looks set to be quite boring.
With that in mind, my predictions for this coming year were quite hard to pin down - what is left to predict?
So let's start where we always do: the review of last year's predictions.
2023 Recap...
Last year, I managed to get 60% of the prior year's predictions correct - let's see if I can beat that.
- This graphics card generation is a lost generation. There will be ZERO cards that consumers or reviewers consider actually good value... (Look, even the 4090 is not good value!)
The cards released this year have all disappointed with their price points and/or price to performance. The RTX 4060 Ti and 16GB were roundly destroyed in the reviewing press, while the RX 7600 and RTX 4060 were head-scratchers with their lack of performance uplift over the prior generation and similar price points.
The RX 7700 XT was poorly priced with respect to the RX 7800 XT compared to the performance drop and the latter part was priced "okay" but not great, relative to the rest of the product stack from both Nvidia and AMD. Especially when considering that it also performed the same as the prior generation's same-named SKU, the RX 6800 XT, though for a cheaper price. This relatively positive reaction to the price has been eroded by the actually available street price of the RX 7800 XT which has consistently been around $40 higher in this post launch period (matching the RX 6800 XT in the open market)...
However, saying all this - reviews have literally called the 7800 XT as the best priced GPU this generation... so, you could say that I was wrong in my prediction. Let's go with that:
Verdict: Wrong - but SO close!
- Nvidia video Super Resolution will be a BIG thing...
This just didn't happen... Sure, Super Resolution was interesting in the browser implementation and VLC also implemented it but the tech actually wasn't that impressive because it was SUPER (get it?!) limited in how it worked. Quite a disappointment and practically no one has even used this in any really useful manner. Plus, the power consumption increase for using this on video is quite large, rendering the point of it a bit useless, in my honest opinion...
Verdict: Wrong!
- There will be no "pro" consoles for either Playstation or Xbox this year... Xbox Series S will continue to be a thorn in developers' sides...
This is 100% correct - not even a question! There have been no mid-gen refresh consoles this year and Xbox Series S has continued to be shown to be an issue for developers...
Verdict: Correct!
- DirectStorage will be a flop... again.
I know this is becoming a perennial thing with me but I have sound technical reasons for not liking this tech with the current design of the personal computer. However, as it stands (and as confirmed by the PC World Full Nerd crew) DirectStorage really has not had any real impact on PC gaming... and it's barely faster than conventional methods.
I'm still waiting and still critical of this API - if new hardware needs to be implemented to actually make this make sense, then I feel like that's my point made for me...
Verdict: Correct!
- 32 GB of RAM will become standard for the recommended specifications of new AAA PC games...
Unfortunately, I cannot claim this one. I did state that it was a long-shot but it turns out that (as per my tracking) only one main stream, high-end game required more than 16 GB of RAM - Forspoken, which required 24 GB, not 32 GB... Not a great endorsement of the prediction!
Verdict: Wrong!
Summary: Not quite on the target...
This year, I'm hitting an "at best" 50:50 and "at worst" a 40:60 against - depending on how you interpret the first prediction in this list. You could say it was a wash or wrong...
Considering that I thought I was pretty conservative in my predictions, that's actually worse than I might have expected!
Anyway, let's take a look at what might be on the horizon!
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| Last year, we really jumped the shark. Maybe this year, things will calm down.... |
2024 Predictions...
This year, I'm going to be a bit bolder, in order to up the stakes and make the highs higher and, consequently, the losses deeper...
I've also taken more time to think about the industry and where it is and where it may be going, so, hopefully, that will make things a little more interesting.
- The client (desktop) RTX 50 series from Nvidia will not release in 2024.
All indications point to Nvidia releasing a refreshed lineup in early 2024 and this, to me, is a very good reason for no next gen cards to appear this coming year.
The 20 series released in late 2018, with the super refresh around 8 months later in '19, with the 30 series appearing at the two-year mark in 2020. The 40 series began appearing in late 2022, but the mid-range cards didn't appear until well into 2023 (this year)...
Just from a company perspective, these SKUs have not been on the market long enough to allow for a new generation and any refresh would push that period back.
Added to this, AMD are not competitive enough to force Nvidia's hand. Therefore, I just don't see any next generation from the green team in 2024.
- If Zen 5 desktop launches this year, it will launch with an X3D part in the lineup.
I honestly thought that this would happen for Ryzen 7000 but we now all know that was essentially a second launch. For the next Ryzen generation on desktop, I believe that the X3D parts have enough cachet that AMD will want them front and centre with the reveal - at least with one prominent SKU.
It's not as if these are cheap parts that will drag the average selling price (ASP) down, so I don't think there's even an economic reason for holding them back.
- If Zen 5 launches, no new motherboard generation will launch. Prices will not drop on current lineups.
One of the justifications for the (in my opinion) insanely-priced AM5 motherboards has been the promise of in-place upgrades. I feel like the board partners "suffered" a little during AM4's reign because enthusiasts generally kept cheap motherboards and upgraded in situ, denying the manufacturers of their usual revenue stream across multiple CPU generations.
This was, of course, along with increased costs associated with BIOS development and extended support with each new AGESA update and managing the intricacies of supporting certain CPUs/generations of CPUs on more motherboards and revisions of motherboards than would normally be the case.
Taking this all into account, I would be surprised if there is any new chipset introduced, with motherboard makers saving money on that side of things and managing to clear existing stock without having to potentially resort to price cuts on the other.
I might clarify here that there may be a numeric "uplift", as manufacturers will be wont to do to prompt sales of the "new" thing, but the underlying chipset and architecture will be the same - unlike going from B350/450/550, which saw advances in PCIe and other bits and pieces.
- PC ports/releases will continue to get better from the current low in terms of quality. 2023 was an outlier.
2023 felt like a real slog when it came to the quality of games being released on PC. Sure, most of it was fixed through subsequent patches, though there are still games that run very poorly 'til this day that don't appear to be getting the deserved support for the users, which is a big shame.
I believe that the factors that resulted in this spate of high profile releases will mostly be resolved for 2024, along with developers and publishers being much more cognizant of the backlash, negative PR and reputational effects in the near future.
Or maybe this is just me wishful thinking...
- No new Radeon cards will launch.
I know there are rumours of an RDNA 3 refresh but I really don't see the point. I don't think there is much more performance to be squeezed out of the architecture or the current process node, and if the rumours of AMD not bringing RDNA 4 to market in the higher end segments, then the implication is that they will rely on the current high end parts to continue to flesh out the upper end of the stack...
In that scenario, faster GDDR6 memory modules and a slightly higher frequency will not really make a very large increase - maybe 5 - 10 % at most.
- Intel will not launch Battlemage desktop GPUs this year.
Although Arc Alchemist launched more than a year ago now, the followup Battlemage doesn't feel like it's imminent in its arrival. I would be surprised if it made an appearance on desktop.
- Microsoft will charge a nominal fee for Windows 10 security updates from client; maybe ~$25 per year.
I read the reports regarding Microsoft extending security support to the client arena with great interest. This feels like the company trying to generate more revenue for essentially "free".
At the end of the day, Windows 11 is a bit of a dud, like Windows Vista and 8 were before it - there are just too many poor decisions and bloated design choices relative to actual improvements in stability and speed* for it to be.
*Unfortunately, aside from the normal early teething issues with Win 11, there appear to be constant issues with stability and OS "slowness", resulting in a less than perfect user experience...
However, saying all that - what is the uptake of Windows 11 in the business sphere?
If Win 11 is just at 8 % of devices surveyed versus 80 % for Win 10, corporate investment in the version is likely a fraction of that...
All of this means that Microsoft's wheel-spinning on getting this version to market in the terrible state it was, with slow, opaquely questionable updates has been a very costly enterprise, with little to no return on that investment... They need to find that return!
This is where my prediction comes into play - consumers and businesses want to stay on Win 10, they want support. Windows 12 is not ready, therefore, why not make the extended support reasonably priced, so that uptake is much higher?
They have the ability to market this within the OS with intrusive pop-ups and other nefarious devices, so why not?
I could put my perennial prediction regarding DirectStorage somewhere here but I'm getting a bit tired going on about it. I still think it won't be a big deal but I'm still waiting to be proven wrong...
The Show Must Go On...
As always, I've had a bit of fun ruminating on the possibilities I've concluded on, above. I look forward to seeing how this year plays out.
Overall, it looks like it could be a quiet year from a consumer standpoint - with a greater focus on just playing the games instead of worrying about the hardware. In a sense, that will be nice... Though, I do have quite a backlog of posts which will fill the time.
Wish me luck in getting them completed and published and I'll see you around!
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